Why Wimax Won't Work in the World of GSM (Indonesia case)

Recently, the government of Indonesia, represented by the Ministry of Information and Communication, is planning to release a Wimax tender. They will auction frequencies in the spectrum of 2.3GHz and 3.3GHz. It is great news, since Indonesian telco industry have been waiting for some time. 

The question is, is Wimax going to have a siginificant place in Indonesian telecommunication market? Let me introduce a bit about our market. Currently we have 13 telco operators including the incumbent PSTN operator PT. Telkom. 12 of it are wireless operators with majority are in GSM camps. The rest are based on CDMA. 3 operators out of it dominate the market, and all of them are GSM operators, with 3G and HSPA networks as well. They dominate 90% of total subscribers. Their network has been extended to places where even you never heard of, I mean sub urban is really sub urban. Indonesia auctioned the 3G spectrum licenses in 2.1GHz in 2006. And aside of smaller 3G operators that have been allocated before, all big 3 got the license for the first 5 MHz. In the auction, 2 operators concentrate on building UMTS and will offer multimedia services, while 1 operator concentrate on mobile broadband and jump to HSDPA. And guess what, mobile broadband is a success, while video call and multimedia services doesn't take off. And therefore the other 2 are catching up to upgrade to HSDPA and offer mobile broadband as well. 

And why it is like this? Because, Indonesia is one of the lowest Internet penetration in Asia. Poeple are hungry for bandwidth. Existing Internet service provider dominated by ADSL but the service are poor. People with mobility don't have too much choice (CDMA 1X though offers 153kbps service, and 1 operator even launch EV-DO). But the alternative is not that successful, considering the high price per KB. With the mobile broadband introduction, the price fall sharply, in order to promote the service, considering the HSDPA coverage is very limited. But after 2 years, with increased demand, the coverage is much improved, and throughput are improved. Many node Bs are connected with metro ethernet over fibre, though most of it are still  using microwave transmission. And even one operator has upgraded the network to 14.4mbps capability.

Now, back to Wimax. Suppose that the tender has been completed, and either new comer or incumbent won this, they have to build the network. Suppose that Wimax could catcth the HSDPA coverage from the incumbent within the first year of deployment, would it be succesfull to compete with HSPA? the answer is No. Why? shouldn't it be accepted by the market due to Intel laptops will be naturally Wimax capability? 

Several points are the reason why it does like that:

• First, in case the Wimax operators is not incumbent, they will have to build new sites or rent existing sites from tower operator. But, these towers are filled with many operators already (12 wireless operators, imagine that). And, transmission access will be a big challenge. Even existing operators have difficulties to increased the capacity on each sites.
• Second, suppose that Wimax is targeting residential area. They will be competing with not only HSDPA, but also ADSL and cable operators. Of course Wimax will have the advantage with their Intel laptop integration.
• Third,  Wimax will have difficulties catching up the existing HSDPA network, therefore the coverage will be limited, compare to GPRS/UMTS/HSDPA. Why, even if the coverage is in par with HSDPA, but once you're out of Wimax network, what would you get? nothing. While HSDPA will either fall to EDGE network, or worst is GPRS. And you will still get your data connection. Please note that one of the big 3 has extensive EDGE network to backup its 3G. Most of users will satisfy with 100kbps when availability is in need.
• Fourth, HSDPA operators will not just sit in. They will evolve to LTE. Maybe a couple years late, but the transition will be no issue.  Interim HSPA are able to provide from 3.6Mbps to 42Mbps when the MIMO variant comes out before LTE is arrived. Sufficient enough for most users when they just need for browsing and email.
• Fifth, voip over Wimax will be a challenge. It is not entirely 100 percent native, but it will need IMS to provide QoS control over it. LTE will have it also. While indonesian market are still dominated by voice, and UMTS still have advantage of it.
• Sixth, huge roaming infrastructure in the world, mobility is the big advantage. Remember why CDMA is not as succesful as GSM despite of more advance radio technology? One of the reason is roaming. GSM was invented by the European, and they need to travel accross countries without having to change their numbers.

Unless new Wimax operators can address this issue, success would only be a dream. Several factors will support the success which are the advantage of Wimax, they are:

1. Intel Laptop, they will be natively wimax capable. Will help the penetration faster.
2. Many vendors to choose will result to cheaper roll out cost (not including base station sites).
3. Flat architecture,  will give higher throughput and low latency. Good for video applications, and maybe IPTV.
   
4. Strong suppport by the government.

Therefore, if this is going to happen, and I believe this will be, we are going to experience another waist of investment..... 

Between Windows Mobile, Symbian and Apple iPhone, My Experience

I've been using PDA phone since it was borne. The first PDA phone, or I should say smartphone, I use was XDA1 from XDA. I was really exciting when I got it the first time. I have used Pocket PC PDA from HP before, and I always wonder on how would it be great if it is combined with a phone functionality. And finally I got this XDA1 from O2.

Yes it has the first Windows Mobile version, and like I experienced with the PDA version, there were always bugs in it. I have to reset it almost 3 to four times a day. Calls were not easy, due to its reception was poor, and at that time GPRS is too slow. Battery is always a problem, it can never last a day. Nevertheless, it is the first generation, so I was hoping next product would be much better. 

Then XDAII came. I bought it rushy, it has bigger memory, and seems more stable, in the beginning. But then, my disappointment  raised again. No improvement in stability, but I still enjoy it since I like it because of its synchronization with Outlook. I can always update my contacts, schedule etc. on the fly, and never loose any till now. When XDAIIs is available with black color and keypad, again I rushed to get it. I even bough its 2nd battery. 

Along with all of its problems (software stability, you still have to reset it everyday, and short battery life), I used it for about a year, and then came this keyboard and screen problem. Keypad is slow and screen wasn't aligned well. So I took it to the official repair shop, and they said it has motherboard problem, they blame me for letting it charged all night everyday. How do I suppose to know that? My other regular cell phones don't have this kind of problem. Oh well, I was frustrated since I have to pay more than $100 to repair it, since they have to replace the mboard. But I don't  want to use it anymore so I sold it and use regular cellphone instead.

Then when 3G with HSDPA came, I had a chance to try new PDA phone from Dopod. The Dopod 838 pro. It is so cool with 1.8Mbps data speed. I feel that this is the very much improved smartphone with windows mobile 5. It was more stable than my last XDAIIs. 

But after 9 months of usage or so, the same problems appears. I have to reset it regularly each day,the keypad and screen  also getting more and more annoying. I don't have time to repair it, till suddenly the security problem appears.

I don't know why the phone always asks for the PIN code (you have to use it if it is synchronized with exchange) even I've entered the correct PIN. And after failing to enter more than 10 times, the system asked to reset the op systems and erased all data. Since I was in need, and data is stored in external card, and I still can recover my personal data on the fly, so I said yes. 

BUT, what I didn't realize is, it erased the data card as well! So I was really pissed at that time. The reset also didn't solve the problem, when encryption for exchange was activated, again the PIN wasn't recognized. 

Later I brought it to the official repair shop, and they said that the mboard might be broken. Again!??. Since the warranty still valid for a couple of days, they will replace it for free. So it was repaired, and I realized that the mboard has been replaced (the IMEI is changed). But, the 

screen and keypad was still have problems. It is always unaligned, and keypad is very slow. 

A couple of days later, I realized that XDA has changed their manufacture supplier form HTC to Quanta. And Dopod is HTC's brand. I wonder, how can HTC became a promising company when they always produce a product which only last 1 year? 

Pheeww, I really disappointed by all this. 838 pro will become my last smartphone using windows mobile. Some points that I don't like about it were:

1. Windows Mobile is never stable. My last windows mobile PDA is WM5. But I heard even WM6 still have the problem (my friend is using HTC Touch Diamond, and he has to reset it everyday, even he has to hack it so the running frequency can be increased to improve its speed).

2. HTC produce a product with low life time. Possibly because too many functionality was packed into one single device quite small.

So the day I went to the repair shop to collect my 838pro, I was looking around at the mall looking at new phones. Suddenly I saw new iPhone is available already at my country. So I asked the price, and seems reasonable. So I bought it, even it has no warranty, due to it is an unlocked version and was jailbreaked. I bought this iPhone 1.0 with 8 GB memory, so the price is right, considering my 838pro is more expensive with much less memory.

I like iPhone since the time I had it. It never has stability problem like WM (some application may crash though, but it is freeware that is not certified). And its ipod, youtube and browser is the best I have experienced so far. IE at WM or even Opera at WM is not par with it. Battery is moderate and reception is good. Its EDGE capability helps a lot. It is not as fast as HSDPA, but for daily use it is considered sufficient. I even can hack it using available tools from the Internet, and i upgraded it to 1.0.4 and unlocked and jailbreaked it by myself. I'm very satisfied with it, but one thing was missing, which is Exchange synchronization. I cannot update my contacts and calendars on the fly anymore, but still can synchronizing it via i Tunes, so still no big problem.

And the good thing is, it last for one year without any HW problem! Till I exchange it with 3G version (iPhone 2.0). I can do trade in with  one shop in Singapore for a Singtel version which is factory unlock. My old iPhone was valued at reasonable price so I can resist to trade it in. Even I didn't bring the box, and the charger cable was broken!

I realized that iPhone was made by Quanta, and not HTC. I wonder if latest XDA is better than the previous one made by HTC. I don't have the experience on it, and I don't have any interest to use it,since it is still using WM.

Now I'm using the 3G iphone with exchange capability  on it, so my problem is solved, and I'm very satisfied with it despite of its keypad touch which is uncomparable with blackberry or WM with keypad. The 16GB memory also more than enough for me at the moment.

Even compare to Nokia E90 I was using when my iPhone has no exchange capability, I consider iPhone is better. The E90 symbian is improved, and browser is much better than previous version, but its memory management is similar to WM. Sometimes you run out of memory if you don't close the active application. And no reset button, so you have to release the battery to power down your phone when it hang. I tried to run blackberry on it, and it is a disaster, why because the main memory was used for the mail, so it will last very fast, similar to WM which can not store SMS and mail on external memory. Unlike iPhone, the memory is shared, so I can store thousand of SMS without running out of it, even though it slows the text applications.

My conclusion is, OSX is a better OS for a smartphone. Compare to WM and Symbian. WM has too many functionalities, and intended for different type of platform, just like Windows on any PC, which is in my opinion is not good. Symbian is similar,it is used by many platform, and suffer the same problem. Unlike WM and Symbian, iPhone and also blackberry, which is single OS for single platform, are a better product.